There are about $260 billion of the deals, known as single-asset, single-borrower bonds, that purchased skyscrapers, shopping centers and other properties. These so-called SASB bonds were meant to be ultrasafe, but the rate of loans at or near default has nearly tripled over two years, hitting 8.7% in 2024.
Private Credit
Last year, private credit assets topped $2.1 trillion globally, most of this in the U.S.
Residential Evictions
Even with the higher eviction rates in several major cities, evictions more broadly have settled to roughly where they were before the pandemic. The first five months of the year had about 422,000 filings for eviction across the 33 cities and an additional 10 states tracked, down slightly from prepandemic norms in those same places.
U.S. Workers
The number of U.S. workers who quit their jobs in one month peaked at 3% in April 2022, prompting many employers to boost salaries, give more time off and offer flexible schedules in an attempt to retain talent. Since then the U.S. rate of quitting has drifted below prepandemic levels to 2.2%, where it has held steady so far this year.
Las Vegas Mirage
The 3,000-room casino hotel that changed Las Vegas when it opened in 1989 will close on July 17.
Recession
The Sahm rule, a rule of thumb popularized by economist Claudia Sahm, says that if the average of the unemployment rate over three months rises a half-percentage point or more above the lowest the three-month average went over the previous year, the economy is in a recession. Over the past three months, the unemployment rate has averaged 4%—0.4 percentage point above the three-month average low of 3.6% over the past year.
Powell Outlook
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he was pleased with how inflation had resumed a downtrend following a rebound at the start of the year, a sign the central bank might be able to lower interest rates by the end of the summer even though he declined to endorse such a move.
Real Estate Funds
Investors will redeem $16.5 billion from real-estate funds this year, compared with $1.5 billion in 2021. Meanwhile, new fundraising is expected to dwindle to $5.7 billion this year, compared with $34 billion in the funds’ peak year of 2021.
Mortgage Lock
Two-thirds of outstanding U.S. mortgages have a rate below 4%. Were these homeowners to move, they would have to pay close to 7% for a new 30-year mortgage. The gap hasn’t been as wide since at least the late 1980s.
Home Prices
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. national home price index, which controls for changes in the mix of homes, is up 51% since the end of 2019.