The employee retention tax credit (ERC), projected to cost the government $55 billion, is a Covid giveaway that keeps on giving. The government has paid $230 billion in claims, including about $120 billion this year.
Consumer Sentiment
The December index of consumer sentiment jumped to 69.7 from November’s 61.3. This was still below its April 2020 level of 71.8. In February 2020, it was at 101.
Four Seasons Telluride
$1 billion Four Seasons Telluride resort is being planned by Fort Partners and Merrimac Ventures. The project will feature 52 guest rooms, where the owners expect to charge an average rate of more than $1,000 a night. Prices are still being worked out for the 68 residences, but the plan is to list one-bedrooms starting at more than $2 million. They expect to break ground late next year.
PE Lending
Warburg Pincus turned to investment giant Apollo Global Management Inc. for a $1 billion loan to pay down bank facilities involving an older fund.
CHH Update
Choice Hotels International’s hostile buyout offer of rival Wyndham Hotels & Resorts has entered a new phase: recriminations. Choice Hotels said on Wednesday that institutional shareholders representing 40% of Wyndham’s total outstanding shares have talked with Choice about its recent offer to exchange their shares for Choice shares or cash.
X Sale
U.S. Steel, the Pittsburgh steel producer that played a key role in the nation’s industrialization, is being acquired by Nippon Steel in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $14.1 billion. The transaction is worth about $14.9 billion when including the assumption of debt. The price tag for U.S. Steel is nearly double what was offered just four months ago by rival Cleveland Cliffs.
Return to Office
Return-to-office rates have stalled for most of 2023. The average office attendance is about half of its prepandemic level in the 60% to 65% range, but the return rate has seemed to have topped out.
Tax Receipts
In the U.S., tax receipts at all levels of government climbed to nearly 28% of GDP last year, up from 25% in 2019 and the highest level since at least 1965.
Volatility
The VIX gauge of implied volatility this week reached its lowest since before the pandemic lockdowns in 2020. The ratio of put options written to protect a portfolio to bullish call options has plunged back to what counted then as unusually low levels. Each of the past three years had a similarly strong consensus that proved entirely wrong.
Retail Sales
Consumer spending showed unexpected strength at the start of the holiday shopping season, as Americans shopped in-person and online, shrugging off signs of economic cooling. Retail sales, which include spending at stores, restaurants and gas stations, rose 0.3% in November from the month before, while economists had expected sales to fall. Sales rose 4.1% in November from a year earlier, outpacing inflation.