Money-market yields recently soared to their highest level in 16 years (read more about that here). Similarly, yields on 10-year Treasurys have lurched to the highest since 2007.
RevPAR Forecast
For 2023, growth in revenue per available room was lowered by 0.5 percentage point, due to a 0.6 percentage point downgrade in occupancy growth. While that RevPAR growth remains above the long-term historical average, most of the increase was frontloaded to the early portion of the year. For 2024, the RevPAR growth projection was also lowered 0.5 percentage point on a 0.5 percentage point downgrade in occupancy. Average daily rate was upgraded 0.1 percentage points for 2023 but kept flat for 2024.
Subprime Auto
The 60-day-plus delinquency rate for subprime auto loans rose to 5.37% in June. That is well above the 0.49% June rate for prime loans in the tracker, and the highest June level ever for subprime.
RE Dry Powder
Opportunistic real-estate funds run by private-equity firms have nearly $145 billion in so-called dry powder for future investments, up from $120 billion at the end of last year.
T Bills
$100 invested in three-month Treasury bills in 1928 grew to only $2,141 by the end of last year while it became $46,379 invested in medium-grade corporate bonds and a whopping $624,534 if invested in stocks.
Activist Investing
Activist hedge funds have seen their investments climb about 14% through July. That trails the S&P 500’s gains of about 20% through the same time period. But it’s better than 2022, when activists as a unit were down more than 16% for the full year.
WeWork
WeWork, once one of the world’s most valuable startups worth $47 billion, said excess supply of commercial real estate, greater competition for flexible space and uncertain economic conditions resulted in losses in the second quarter. The company’s stock is down more than 95% since its public listing, with an estimated market capitalization now around $450 million.
Mortgage Lending
Total commercial and multifamily mortgage lending is expected to fall to $504 billion this year, a 38% decline from 2022.
Apartment Values
Apartment-building values fell 14% for the year ended in June after rising 25% the previous year.
Hedge Fund Flows
Hedge-fund firms that have more than $5 billion in assets had net inflows of $14 billion in the first half of this year. Those with between $1 billion and $5 billion had inflows of about $1 billion. Firms managing less than $1 billion, by contrast, had net outflows of some $2 billion.