Fed officials’ quarterly economic projections have penciled in an interest-rate outlook suggesting that, once they make their first move, they could cut rates by a quarter percentage point roughly once every quarter.
Office and Multi
Office is by far the most troubled property class. In the second quarter, the volume of office property seized in foreclosures and other actions was up about $5 billion from the second quarter of 2023. Apartment buildings, which have been hit hard by the increase in interest rates and the crush of new supply, had a $975 million increase during the same period.
CRE Foreclosures
In the second quarter, portfolios of foreclosed and seized office buildings, apartments and other commercial property reached $20.5 billion. That is a 13% increase from the first quarter and the highest quarterly figure since 2015.
Hotel Fitness
More hotels are introducing specialty ‘wellness’ accommodations that bring the gym into the guest room.
Purchasing Index
The U.S.’s S&P Global Flash Composite Purchasing Managers Index—which gauges activity in the country’s manufacturing and services sectors—rose to 55.0 in July from 54.8 in June, marking a 27-month high.
Job Market
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% last month—the first time it has crossed above 4% since 2021. That’s still low by historical measures, but it’s up from 3.4% early last year.
Government Offices
A Government Accountability Office review of 24 federal agencies last year estimated that 17 of them used on average one-quarter or less of the capacity of their headquarters buildings during a three-week sample period.
Market Rotation
The small-cap index rose 1.7% this past week, extending its 2024 advance to 7.8%, while the S&P 500 dropped 2%.
Hotel Spreads
In comparing spreads of hotel deals closed in January and closed mid-year, it’s 50 to 75 basis points more today than at the beginning of the year.
New York Multi
The torrent of supply has pushed Manhattan’s office availability rate to 17.9% by the end of June, down a fraction from the 18.1% all-time-high recorded in the first quarter.